ANALISIS PERUBAHAN PENGGUNAAN LAHAN, POTENSI EROSI, DAN DEBIT BANJIR RANCANGAN DI SUB DAS TUKAD KALIAKAH

Aryantha, I Made Wiwin Juni (2026) ANALISIS PERUBAHAN PENGGUNAAN LAHAN, POTENSI EROSI, DAN DEBIT BANJIR RANCANGAN DI SUB DAS TUKAD KALIAKAH. Masters thesis, Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya.

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Abstract

The Tukad Kaliakah Sub-watershed has experienced land use changes that potentially affect its hydrological conditions. The conversion of vegetated land into built-up areas may increase erosion, sedimentation, and flood discharge. This study aims to analyze land use changes between 2012 and 2023, evaluate erosion and sedimentation potential, estimate design flood discharge, and formulate conservation measures for the Tukad Kaliakah Sub-watershed. This study employed a quantitative GIS-based approach using QGIS in the 11.88 km² Tukad Kaliakah Sub-watershed. The data consisted of rainfall, DEMNAS, soil type, river network, watershed boundary, and land use maps for 2012 and 2023. Erosion was analyzed using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), sedimentation using the Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) and Sediment Yield (SY), and hydrological analysis using frequency analysis, the Mononobe hourly rainfall distribution, and the Nakayasu Synthetic Unit Hydrograph (SUH). Conservation measures were formulated based on erosion hazard and land use analyses. The results showed a decrease of 8.78% in mixed gardens and 24.65% in paddy fields, while residential areas increased by 33.42% during 2012–2023. These changes increased the average erosion rate from 24.19 to 26.68 tons/ha/year. With an SDR of 0.195, Sediment Yield increased from 5,603.86 to 6,181.69 tons/year. Peak flood discharge also increased with return period, reaching 33.20, 33.77, 37.57, and 41.35 m³/s for the 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year return periods, respectively. Based on these findings, vegetative conservation through agroforestry is recommended over 163.19 ha of priority conservation areas to increase vegetation cover, reduce erosion and sedimentation potential, and support the hydrological sustainability of the Tukad Kaliakah Sub-watershed.

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