Integrasi Model Sistem Dinamik untuk Ketahanan Pangan Berkelanjutan dalam Mitigasi Penurunan Yield Susu Perah (Studi Kasus: PT. Nawasena Satya Perkasa). (Integration of Dynamic System Models for Sustainable Food Security in Mitigating the Decline of Dairy Milk Yields (Case Study: PT. Nawasena Satya Perkasa)).

Chumairo, Firda (2026) Integrasi Model Sistem Dinamik untuk Ketahanan Pangan Berkelanjutan dalam Mitigasi Penurunan Yield Susu Perah (Studi Kasus: PT. Nawasena Satya Perkasa). (Integration of Dynamic System Models for Sustainable Food Security in Mitigating the Decline of Dairy Milk Yields (Case Study: PT. Nawasena Satya Perkasa)). Undergraduate thesis, Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya.

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze and optimize the supply chain and food security at PT Nawasena Satya Perkasa. The research method uses a mixed method approach, qualitative analysis of the supply chain structure, followed by quantitative analysis through a Likert scale questionnaire 1–5 to 80 respondents using Structural Equation Modeling-Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS) with SmartPLS, and dynamic system modeling with Stella software. The results of the SEM-PLS analysis show that all indicators are valid and reliable (AVE ≥ 0.50; Loadings ≥ 0.70; Alpha & CR ≥ 0.70). Feed management factors are the dominant determinants that significantly trigger a decrease in milk yield up to 7 times (T = 4.709; P = 0.000), mainly due to late feed (MP1: 0.957) and limited quantities (MP2: 0.949). Stella's simulation confirmed a high supply dependency, with internal production only reaching 6 tons/day and relying on smallholder farmers for 19 tons/day to meet the actual distribution of 25 tons/day from a total market target of 100 tons/day. The best mitigation scenario was achieved through a combination of Simultaneous Artificial Insemination and estrus injections that increased daily productivity by 375% in 12 weeks/month and increased target education to the range of 37%–43.60%. Optimization was also achieved through precision feed formulation based on body weight (31.2 tons of forage and 7.96 tons of concentrate/day) for a maximum capacity of 1,000 head in the old barn, expansion of 2 new barns on 4 hectares of land, and sale of cattle to smallholder farmers with a healthy profit margin (buy Rp8,000/liter; sell Rp9,000 Rp10,000/liter). The company is advised to improve operational discipline in feeding to optimize Animal Health and Welfare (KK) factors and implement the Simultaneous AI scenario to maintain sustainable supply targets.

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