Pengaruh Belanja Pemerintah dan Pendapatan Asli Daerah terhadap Produk Domestik Regional Bruto tahun 2014-2022 di Kota Surabaya

Rasul Dafana, Erwin Putra (2025) Pengaruh Belanja Pemerintah dan Pendapatan Asli Daerah terhadap Produk Domestik Regional Bruto tahun 2014-2022 di Kota Surabaya. Undergraduate thesis, Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya.

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Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh belanja pemerintah dan Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD) terhadap Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) Kota Surabaya selama periode 2014–2022. Latar belakang penelitian berangkat dari pentingnya peran kebijakan fiskal daerah dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, serta adanya ketidaksesuaian antara peningkatan belanja daerah dan PAD dengan perkembangan PDRB. Metode penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan analisis regresi linier berganda berbasis data runtun waktu (time series) yang diperoleh dari BPS dan DJPK. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa secara simultan belanja pemerintah dan PAD berpengaruh signifikan terhadap PDRB. Secara parsial, belanja pemerintah terbukti berpengaruh positif dan signifikan, sedangkan PAD berpengaruh positif namun tidak signifikan terhadap PDRB. Nilai koefisien determinasi sebesar 0,998 mengindikasikan bahwa kedua variabel mampu menjelaskan sebagian besar variasi PDRB. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa belanja pemerintah merupakan instrumen fiskal yang dominan dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi Kota Surabaya, sementara kontribusi PAD masih perlu diperkuat agar lebih efektif dalam meningkatkan kapasitas fiskal dan mendorong aktivitas ekonomi produktif. Penelitian ini diharapkan menjadi referensi bagi pemerintah daerah dalam penyusunan kebijakan anggaran yang lebih tepat sasaran.

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