Model Sistem Dinamis Pengaruh Varietas Unggul Dan Pupuk Semi Organik Terhadap Produktivitas Pertanian Berkelanjutan. (Dynamic System Model of the Influence of Superior Varieties and Semi-Organic Fertilizer on Sustainable Agricultural Productivity).

Putri, Devi Rahmawati (2025) Model Sistem Dinamis Pengaruh Varietas Unggul Dan Pupuk Semi Organik Terhadap Produktivitas Pertanian Berkelanjutan. (Dynamic System Model of the Influence of Superior Varieties and Semi-Organic Fertilizer on Sustainable Agricultural Productivity). Undergraduate thesis, Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya.

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Abstract

The sustainability of agricultural systems has become a major challenge amid increasing environmental and economic pressures. This study aims to examine the key factors influencing agricultural sustainability in Singkalan Village, Balongbendo Subdistrict, Sidoarjo Regency, and to evaluate policy effectiveness using quantitative and systemic approaches. The methods applied include Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to identify significant factors, and system dynamics modeling using STELLA software to simulate policy impacts. The results show that sustainability is influenced by technology adoption, the use of superior crop varieties, fertilization systems, irrigation water availability, and farmer profitability. Three policy scenarios were tested: productivity improvement through superior varieties, cost efficiency through semi-organic fertilizer (25%), and a combined scenario. The combined scenario yielded the best results, including a 2.53% increase in rice productivity and 8.40% in maize, a 16.29% and 16.22% reduction in operational costs for rice and maize respectively, and an increase in farmers’ profits by 1.22% for rice and 2.56% for maize. Risk analysis identified key challenges such as dependency on rainfall (RPN = 20) and social resistance to innovation (RPN = 16 and 12). Recommended mitigation strategies include institutional strengthening, intensive agricultural extension, and expanded access to financing to support adaptive and sustainable agricultural policies. Keywords: PLS-SEM, productivity, agricultural sustainability, system dynamics

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