Analisis Faktor Triple Bottom Line Ketahanan Pangan serta Profit dengan SmartPLS dan Sistem Dinamis. (Analysis of Triple Bottom Line Factors of Food Security and Profit Using SmartPLS and Dynamic Systems)

Rizky Oktaviano Saroja Putra, Rizky (2025) Analisis Faktor Triple Bottom Line Ketahanan Pangan serta Profit dengan SmartPLS dan Sistem Dinamis. (Analysis of Triple Bottom Line Factors of Food Security and Profit Using SmartPLS and Dynamic Systems). Undergraduate thesis, Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya.

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Abstract

Kedungputri Village, located in Paron Sub-district, Ngawi Regency, is a major rice-producing area that faces significant challenges in sustaining its agricultural sector, particularly due to the aging farmer population and low involvement of younger generations. This study aims to evaluate food security in the rice farming sector by identifying key factors influencing farmers’ profitability. Utilizing a quantitative approach with SmartPLS analysis, the findings reveal that technology adoption (original sample = 0.986) and pest infestation intensity (original sample = 0.838) are the most influential variables, both statistically significant (p-value < 0.05). A system dynamics model was subsequently developed to simulate the interactions among key agricultural variables and assess two policy scenarios for the 2024–2029 period. Scenario 1 involves increasing pesticide application and technological efficiency, while Scenario 2 promotes an ecological approach through the conservation of barn owls as natural pest predators. The simulation results indicate that Scenario 1 provides an average annual increase in net profit of 5.85%, peaking at 7.18% in 2027. Meanwhile, Scenario 2 yields a substantially higher average annual profit increase of 21.31%, reaching a peak of 24.11% in 2028. These results suggest that ecological pest control strategies combined with enhanced technological adaptation are more effective in increasing farmers’ income, improving input efficiency, and supporting sustainable food security at the village level.

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