Perbandingan Model LSTM dan GRU untuk Peramalan Arah dan Kecepatan Angin Berbasis Data Automatic Weather Observing System (AWOS) Comparison of LSTM and GRU Models for Wind Direction and Speed ​​Forecasting Based on Automatic Weather Observing System (AWOS) Data

Wahabi, Adnan (2025) Perbandingan Model LSTM dan GRU untuk Peramalan Arah dan Kecepatan Angin Berbasis Data Automatic Weather Observing System (AWOS) Comparison of LSTM and GRU Models for Wind Direction and Speed ​​Forecasting Based on Automatic Weather Observing System (AWOS) Data. Undergraduate thesis, Universitas Islam Indragiri.

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Official URL: https://sistemasi.ftik.unisi.ac.id/index.php/stmsi...

Abstract

With the rising trend of deep learning in the current technological era, the implementation and utilization of this method are expanding, including in the field of meteorology to support aviation safety. As an archipelagic nation, Indonesia faces significant challenges in maintaining smooth and safe flight operations due to unpredictable weather conditions—specifically wind direction and speed, which affect aircraft takeoff and landing. To address these challenges, the Automatic Weather Observing System (AWOS) plays a crucial role in providing real-time weather data. This study aims to compare the performance of two popular deep learning models capable of handling time-series data and the vanishing gradient problem—Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)—in forecasting wind direction and speed. The study utilizes AWOS data from Sultan Hasanuddin International Airport covering the period from January 2020 to December 2022, obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) website. Following a preprocessing stage, five out of eight attributes were selected for the modeling process. Evaluation results indicate that the LSTM model consistently outperformed the GRU model across all forecasting scenarios (30 minutes, 1 hour, and 1.5 hours) for both wind direction and speed. For wind direction, LSTM achieved MAE values ​​of 10.92°–11.01°, MSE of 242.45–247.89, and RMSE of 15.57°–15.74°, all of which were lower than those of the GRU model. Regarding wind speed, LSTM recorded MAE values ​​of 30.32–31.72 knots, MSE of 1868.53–2013.92, and RMSE of 43.23–44.88 knots, also outperforming the GRU model. Based on these findings, it is concluded that the LSTM model yields lower error rates than the GRU model in forecasting wind direction and speed. This research is expected to contribute to the development of disaster risk mitigation systems and the advancement of future weather forecasting technologies. With the rising trend of deep learning in the current technological era, the implementation and utilization of this method are expanding, including in the field of meteorology to support aviation safety. As an archipelagic nation, Indonesia faces significant challenges in maintaining smooth and safe flight operations due to unpredictable weather conditions—specifically wind direction and speed, which affect aircraft takeoff and landing. To address these challenges, the Automatic Weather Observing System (AWOS) plays a crucial role in providing real-time weather data. This study aims to compare the performance of two popular deep learning models capable of handling time-series data and the vanishing gradient problem—Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)—in forecasting wind direction and speed. The study utilizes AWOS data from Sultan Hasanuddin International Airport covering the period from January 2020 to December 2022, obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) website. Following a preprocessing stage, five out of eight attributes were selected for the modeling process. Evaluation results indicate that the LSTM model consistently outperformed the GRU model across all forecasting scenarios (30 minutes, 1 hour, and 1.5 hours) for both wind direction and speed. For wind direction, LSTM achieved MAE values ​​of 10.92°–11.01°, MSE of 242.45–247.89, and RMSE of 15.57°–15.74°, all of which were lower than those of the GRU model. Regarding wind speed, LSTM recorded MAE values ​​of 30.32–31.72 knots, MSE of 1868.53–2013.92, and RMSE of 43.23–44.88 knots, also outperforming the GRU model. Based on these findings, it is concluded that the LSTM model yields lower error rates than the GRU model in forecasting wind direction and speed. This research is expected to contribute to the development of disaster risk mitigation systems and the advancement of future weather forecasting technologies.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Deep Learning;Long Short-Term Memory;Gated Recurrent Unit;Wind Forecasting
Subjects: Q Science > Q Science (General)
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
T Technology > T Technology (General)
Divisions: Fakultas Teknik > Program Studi Teknik Informatika
Depositing User: 1462100077 Adnan Wahabi
Date Deposited: 23 Jun 2026 05:45
Last Modified: 23 Jun 2026 05:45
URI: http://repository.untag-sby.ac.id/id/eprint/42196

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