Analisis Ketahanan Pangan Menggunakan SmartPLS dan Sistem Dinamis: Pemanfaatan Organomineral Fertilizer dan Benih Unggul. (Food Security Analysis Using SmartPLS and System Dynamics: Utilization of Organo-Mineral Fertilizer and Superior Seeds)

Anggraeni, Oktavia (2025) Analisis Ketahanan Pangan Menggunakan SmartPLS dan Sistem Dinamis: Pemanfaatan Organomineral Fertilizer dan Benih Unggul. (Food Security Analysis Using SmartPLS and System Dynamics: Utilization of Organo-Mineral Fertilizer and Superior Seeds). Undergraduate thesis, Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya.

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Abstract

Food security is the main focus of this study, which aims to identify the influencing factors and evaluate dynamic system scenarios to improve productivity and profitability in Semen Village, Ngawi Regency. Factor analysis was carried out using Structural Equation Modeling with SmartPLS, which indicated that adaptation to technology, seed type in the third planting season, fertilizer type, and availability of water sources are significant variables directly affecting food security (p-value < 0.05). Based on the analysis results, three policy scenarios were simulated using a dynamic system model for the 2024–2029 period, where operational costs were calculated per planting season for the total paddy field area in the village. The first scenario evaluated fertilizer composition. The best sub-scenario, with 60% chemical and 40% organic fertilizer, increased productivity from 6.32 to 6.73 tons/ha (+6.51%) and reduced costs from IDR 10.38 billion to IDR 9.94 billion/ha (−4.25%). The second scenario, using the superior Inpari Sidenuk seed, improved productivity from 6.32 to 6.89 tons/ha (+9.01%) with a slight cost increase from IDR 10.38 billion to IDR 10.42 billion/ha (+0.38%). Meanwhile, the third scenario, combining mixed fertilizer and improved seeds, achieved the best outcome by increasing productivity from 6.32 to 7.24 tons/ha (+14.56%) and reducing costs from IDR 10.38 billion to IDR 9.97 billion/ha (−3.95%). This third scenario is recommended as the optimal strategy, as it significantly improves crop yield while maintaining cost efficiency in the short term.

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