Rancang Bangun Sistem Informasi Inventory Barang Diecast Menggunakan Metode Support Vector Regression Untuk Peramalan Tren Penjualan. (Designing and Developing Diecast Goods Investory Information Systems Using The Support Vector Regression Method for Sales Trend Forecasting).

Saragih, Imanuel (2023) Rancang Bangun Sistem Informasi Inventory Barang Diecast Menggunakan Metode Support Vector Regression Untuk Peramalan Tren Penjualan. (Designing and Developing Diecast Goods Investory Information Systems Using The Support Vector Regression Method for Sales Trend Forecasting). Undergraduate thesis, Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya.

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Abstract

Dalam menjalankan suatu usaha khususnya toko Sada Hobby yang memasarkan produk diecast, mengelola persediaan produk merupakan hal yang penting. Meski begitu, mengelola produk yang semakin banyak akan merepotkan jika dilakukan secara manual sehingga diperlukan sebuah sistem informasi yang dapat menginventoryasi persediaan produk tersebut. Kemudian, untuk persediaan barang memiliki tantangan tersendiri karena diimport dari luar negeri. Waktu pengiriman sering tidak pasti karena jarak yang jauh serta transportasi yang digunakan adalah kapal yang dapat berakibat pada keterlambatan penyediaan stok barang. Oleh karena itu, dibutuhkan suatu model peramalan untuk dalam mengatasi persoalan tersebut. Metode yang digunakan adalah Support Vector Regression karena metode ini dapat memproses data-data non-linier secara efektif dan memiliki fleksibilitas tinggi terhadap data yang kompleks dengan penggunakan ε-sensitive. Pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan mengunjungi langsung pemilik toko dan mengakses data penjualannya pada file excel untuk direkap. Data yang dipakai adalah 1 tahun penjualan. Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah model SVR dapat melakukan prediksi penjualan untuk setiap bulan dalam rentang waktu 1 tahun ke depan serta mengukur akurasi prediksinya dengan Mean Squarred Error. Pada prediksi ini, diperoleh hasil estimasi sebesar 8423 untuk 1 tahun penjualan ke depan dengan akurasi sebesar 0.0146 menggunakan MSE. Hasil ini tergolong sangat baik karena nilai MSE yang diperoleh berkisar 0,01. Kemudian, hasil prediksi untuk beberapa merk yang populer seperti Tomica estimasinya sebesar 2423 dengan MSE sebesar 0.611, merk Hotwheels estimasi penjualannya sebesar 1299 dengan MSE sebesar 0.0741, dan merk Majorette adalah sebesar 360 dengan MSE 0.009. Hasil MSE dari kedua merk populer tersebut tergolong baik meski nilainya lebih tinggi dibandingkan nilai MSE prediksi penjualan, karena untuk melakukan prediksi berdasarkan merk prosesnya lebih rumit di mana harus dibandingkan dengan seluruh merk yang lain, sedangkan penjualan cukup mentotal hasil penjualan dari semua merk.

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