Analisis Prediksi Usia Pakai Transformator Dengan Metode Regresi Linear di PT. PLN (Persero) ULP Kenjeran Surabaya. (Analysis of Transformer Life Prediction Using Linear Regression Method at PT. PLN (Persero) ULP Kenjeran Surabaya).

Thohir, M. Fauzi (2023) Analisis Prediksi Usia Pakai Transformator Dengan Metode Regresi Linear di PT. PLN (Persero) ULP Kenjeran Surabaya. (Analysis of Transformer Life Prediction Using Linear Regression Method at PT. PLN (Persero) ULP Kenjeran Surabaya). Undergraduate thesis, Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya.

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Abstract

Transformator Distribusi adalah salah satu peralatan penting dalam penyaluran listrik ke konsumen. Kebutuhan listrik tiap tahunnya mengalami peningkatan beban, agar transformator bekerja dengan optimal maka harus di perhatikan juga mengenai pembebanannya. Menurut IEC 354 apabila transformator dibebani stabil 100% dengan kondisi sekitar 20℃ dan suhu belitan 98℃, tetapi apabila suhu lingkungan lebih dari 20℃ maka umur transformator akan mengalami penurunan. Dalam penelitian ini data pembebanan yang digunakan adalah transformator distribusi 160 KVA dari tahun 2021-2022 yaitu untuk memprediksi usia pakai transformator dari faktor kenaikan pembebanan ditahun mendatang pada PT. PLN ULP Kenjeran Surabaya dengan menggunakan metode regresi linear, metode regresi linear bertujuan untuk meramalkan pembeban pada tahun selanjutnya dan setiap tahun pembebanan mengalami kenaikan sebanyak 2%. Untuk mengetahui hasil peramalan beban, didapatkan hasil beban siang dari tahun 2023 dengan persamaan regresi linear pada beban siang sebesar 55,37 dan beban malam 63,18, pada tahun 2024 memiliki beban siang sebesar 57,14 dan beban malam 65, 38, pada tahun 2025 memiliki beban siang sebesar 59,32 dan beban malam 67,62, pada tahun 2026 memiliki beban siang sebesar 61,86 dan beban malam 69,86, pada tahun 2027 memiliki beban siang sebesar 63,95 dan beban malam 71,75. Maka berdasarkan perhitungan bahwa prediksi usia pakai transformator distribusi 160 KVA pada tahun 2027 mendatang yang memiliki nilai susut umur sebesar 1,1 p.u atau diperkirakan umur transformator distribusi ialah 12 tahun 7 bulan yang memiliki pembebanan 71,75% yang mana masih dibawah nilai maksimum pembebanan yaitu 80%.

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