Triana, Masca Indra (2025) Analisis Risiko pada Proyek Konstruksi Tangki Timbun dengan Menggunakan Bayesian Belief Network pada Proyek Pembangunan Tank Farm & Pipe Rack Works (Tayan Bulking Station – Kalimantan Barat) (Storage Tank Project Risk Analysis Based on A Bayesian Belief Network). Masters thesis, Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya.
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Abstract
Storage tank construction projects are inherently complex, making them highly susceptible to risks such as delays, cost overruns, and quality degradation. In this context, a systematic approach is required to identify, map, and analyze the causal relationships between risk factors and risk causes to develop appropriate preventive and corrective strategies. This study aims to develop a risk analysis model based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) to map causal relationships and calculate the probability of risk occurrence in storage tank construction projects. This study aims to develop a risk analysis model for storage tank construction projects using the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) approach. Risk factors were identified through a Systematic Literature Review and Focus Group Discussion (FGD), followed by four stages of questionnaires involving eight expert respondents. These stages included assessing the relevance of risk factors, mapping causal relationships, and evaluating probabilistic influence using the Risk Influence Rating (RIR) method. The results were used to construct the Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) and Conditional Probability Table (CPT) as the foundation for BBN modeling in Hugin software. The resulting model effectively maps causal risk pathways and calculates the probability of critical risks. Thirteen causal factors were found to influence four key risk categories significantly. The expert-based BBN model estimated a project success probability of 50.99%, with work incident, material delivery, and budget as the most influential factors. Meanwhile, a case study showed a project success probability of 65%, with dominant factors including material delivery, OHS systems and equipment, and structure design. Recommended actions include early procurement of long lead items with digital supply chain monitoring, enhanced occupational safety measures, and early-stage technical review of structural design to prevent revisions during execution.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Risk Analysis, Bayesian Belief Network, Storage Tank Construction, Risk Factor, Causal Factor |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Teknik > magister teknik sipil |
| Depositing User: | MTS Magister Teknik Sipil 2025 |
| Date Deposited: | 23 Aug 2001 18:05 |
| Last Modified: | 23 Aug 2001 18:05 |
| URI: | http://repository.untag-sby.ac.id/id/eprint/41154 |
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