Simulasi Model Dan Skenario Dinamis Untuk Mengoptimalkan Produksi Komoditas Pertanian Sebagai Strategi Menciptakan Green Economy Di Desa Minggirsari Kecamatan Kanigoro Kabupaten Blitar. (Dynamic Model and Scenario Simulation to Optimize Agricultural Commodity Production as a Strategy to Create a Green Economy in Minggirsari Village, Kanigoro District, Blitar Regency).

Anggraeni, Herlina Nur (2024) Simulasi Model Dan Skenario Dinamis Untuk Mengoptimalkan Produksi Komoditas Pertanian Sebagai Strategi Menciptakan Green Economy Di Desa Minggirsari Kecamatan Kanigoro Kabupaten Blitar. (Dynamic Model and Scenario Simulation to Optimize Agricultural Commodity Production as a Strategy to Create a Green Economy in Minggirsari Village, Kanigoro District, Blitar Regency). Undergraduate thesis, Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya.

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Abstract

Minggirsari is one of the villages in Kanigoro District, Blitar Regency. This village covering an area of 267.76 hectares with a rice field area reaching 20% productive has a strong carrying capacity to produce agricultural commodities. These agricultural commodities are seasonal crops in the form of rice, corn, and chili. The dominant commodity is rice which is a staple food where planting activities are intended to meet the rice needs of its own population. However, historically the village has not been able to cover up to 80% of the size of the need. Thus, strategies are needed to achieve food security, including lifting other commodities that have high selling value so as to maximize profits used to cover the shortage of needs. The strategy of producing agricultural commodities owned by Minggirsari Village is carried out using a dynamic system approach with STELLA software. Based on the base model which is unable to meet rice needs and tends to deficit profits, a dynamic model scenario is made. The result of the first scenario regarding the change of fertilizer from chemical to non-chemical with the proportion of land as the base model resulted in decreased production costs and the fraction of rice to rice increased from 65% to 75%. Furthermore, the result of the second scenario is the division of the proportion of land with an allocation of 33% of rice planting land, 39% of corn planting land, and 28% of chili planting land resulting in increased profits obtained. As for the combined simulation results between the first and second scenarios, the average profit is the most optimal, which is Rp10,414,478,175.70.

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