SIMULASI MODEL DAN SKENARIO DINAMIS UNTUK MENGOPTIMALKAN PRODUKSI KOMODITAS PERTANIAN SEBAGAI STRATEGI MENCIPTAKAN GREEN ECONOMY DI DESA MINGGIRSARI KECAMATAN KANIGORO KABUPATEN BLITAR

Anggraeni, Herlina Nur (2024) SIMULASI MODEL DAN SKENARIO DINAMIS UNTUK MENGOPTIMALKAN PRODUKSI KOMODITAS PERTANIAN SEBAGAI STRATEGI MENCIPTAKAN GREEN ECONOMY DI DESA MINGGIRSARI KECAMATAN KANIGORO KABUPATEN BLITAR. Undergraduate thesis, Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya.

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Abstract

Minggirsari merupakan salah satu desa di Kecamatan Kanigoro Kabupaten Blitar. Desa seluas 267.76 hektar dengan luas lahan persawahan mencapai 20% produktif ini memiliki daya dukung yang kuat untuk menghasilkan komoditas pertanian. Komoditas pertanian tersebut yaitu tanaman musiman berupa padi, jagung, dan cabai. Adapun komoditas dominannya adalah padi yang merupakan bahan pangan pokok dimana aktivitas tanamnya dimaksudkan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan beras penduduknya sendiri. Akan tetapi, secara historis desa tersebut tidak mampu menutup hingga 80% dari besarnya kebutuhan. Dengan demikian, diperlukan strategi untuk mencapai ketahanan pangan, diantaranya adalah mengangkat komoditas lain yang memiliki nilai jual tinggi sehingga dapat memaksimalkan keuntungan yang digunakan untuk menutup kekurangan dari kebutuhan. Strategi memproduksi komoditas pertanian yang dimiliki Desa Minggirsari dilakukan menggunakan pendekatan sistem dinamis dengan software STELLA. Berdasarkan base model yang mana tidak mampu memenuhi kebutuhan beras dan cenderung defisit keuntungan, maka dilakukan pembuatan skenario model dinamis. Hasil skenario pertama mengenai pergantian pupuk dari kimia menjadi non-kimia dengan proporsi lahan seperti base model mengakibatkan biaya produksi menurun dan fraksi padi ke beras meningkat yang awalnya 65% menjadi 75%. Selanjutnya, hasil skenario kedua yaitu pembagian proporsi lahan dengan alokasi 33% lahan tanam padi, 39% lahan tanam jagung, dan 28% lahan tanam cabai mengakibatkan meningkatnya keuntungan yang didapatkan. Adapun untuk hasil simulasi gabungan antara skenario pertama dan kedua memberikan rata-rata keuntungan paling optimum, yaitu sebesar Rp10,414,478,175.70.

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